Just Stuff

In my procrastination this morning, I read a blogger posting on the Huffington Post, suggesting that unless Sen. Obama selects Sen. Clinton as his running mate, he will lose the presidential election. After overcoming my first reaction, namely another Hillary supporter venting her spleen, I gave some thought to just what she was saying.

The "Bradley Effect" is named after Tom Bradley, the african-american mayor of LA, who ran for governor of California. I do not recall the year, but it was a while ago. All polls showed him with a substantial lead, pre-election; once the votes were counted, he lost.

Much academic thought has gone into the Effect; there seems to be an uneasy consensus that it appears in elections where a black is running for elective office of high importance, e.g., Governor; Senator; President, and an uneasiness develops, often not given true weight until the voter is in the voting booth, about voting for such a person. Some have gone so far as to accuse white respondents to polls of lying to the pollsters, so they don't appear racist; whatever the cause, it appears to be real.

The blogger pointed out her reasons for placing Hillary on the ticket as overcoming this effect; one, as I recall, being that if a white male is the running mate, it doesn't overcome the Effect, as the lead candidate is still Black, compared to a White man as the vice presidential nominee, which results in unfavorable comparisons. Her solution is that as Hillary is not a white male, these comparisons cannot be drawn.

While I'm not sure about her proposed solution, I am sure that the Effect is real. What do you think?